CMH SCIENTIFIC

CTF · Clinical Trial Falsifier

Tests whether an apparent responder subgroup is real by running the identical procedure on patients who received placebo — before a trial is designed around it.
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Interactive demo
Adjustable illustrative cohort
CLS validated · ALS PRO-ACT
CTF verdict
claim-test exposure · 0–100 illustrative
Observed mean effect
illustrative endpoint units
Opposed response mass
latent sign contradiction
Placebo calibration gap
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same subgroup rule on control
Evidence shortfall
points below this claim’s test threshold
CTF principle: an apparent responder pattern has to survive a placebo negative-control procedure before it should be treated as treatment-specific. The broader claim ladder then shows what the same trial can and cannot support about population benefit, subgroup uniformity, biomarkers, or mechanism. The adjustable cohort is illustrative; the placebo-control falsification evidence is grounded in ALS PRO-ACT.

Trial response field

interactive illustrative cohort
Without CTF · treatment-only story—

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With CTF · identical rule on placebo—

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benefit branchnon-benefit / harm branchcontrolsolid line = observed arm mean

Claim ladder

same trial, different claims

Next trial-design actions

trial-design logic
CTF · Clinical Trial Falsifier
CMH Scientific. The adjustable cohort is illustrative; CLS is a validated metric demonstrated on ALS PRO-ACT. Not a power calculator, trial-registration system, or clinical decision tool.
CTF asks a direct pre-design question: does the apparent responder pattern survive when the same subgroup procedure is run on placebo, or is the pattern reproducible prediction error?

Validation & data provenance

The adjustable cohort on this page is illustrative. The falsification / CLS evidence is grounded in the pooled PRO-ACT ALS placebo-control experiment reported on Research Square.

PRO-ACT ALS clinical-trial validation2,445 patients · 54,007 landmark–horizon pairs
Held-out horizons60, 90, and 180 days; active- and placebo-arm prognostic laws evaluated in held-out patients
Negative-control testThe same apparent responder/harm procedure was applied to placebo patients to measure its false-positive behavior
Boundary: the sliders generate an illustrative response field so a viewer can see the logic move. They are not the validation cohort. The empirical falsification basis is PRO-ACT; no individual treatment effect is inferred from prognostic residuals alone.
Dataset / validation references
  1. Atassi N, Berry J, Shui A, et al. The PRO-ACT database: design, initial analyses, and predictive features. Neurology. 2014;83(19):1719–1725. doi:10.1212/WNL.0000000000000951.
  2. Ewing MA. Prediction Error Masquerades as Individual Treatment Response: A Placebo-Controlled Falsification Study in Pooled ALS Trials. Research Square. 2026. doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-10898606/v1.